The Jacksonville Jaguars looked ready to make a run at the AFC elite through the first three months of 2023 before December decimated an 8-3 straight up and against the spread record in the opening 11 games.
The Jags can either use their 1-5 faceplant to end 2023 as motivation for this upcoming year or let that late-season collapse set the tone for 2024.
Jacksonville doesn’t carry the same expectations as last year, forecasting to fight for second place in the AFC South with an 8.5 win total while giving points in just nine games. The schedule is also much stiffer than last season too, with several contenders sprinkled throughout and divisional foes like Houston and Indianapolis on the up-and-up.
Can Doug Pederson turn lemons into lemonade or are Jaguars backers in for another sour season? Here are my favorite NFL picks for the 2024 Jacksonville Jaguars.
Jacksonville Jaguars odds
| Win Super Bowl | +5,000 |
| Win conference | +2,500 |
| Win division | +275 |
| Make playoffs | +130 |
| Over 8.5 wins | -110 |
| Under 8.5 wins | -110 |
Best futures bet: No playoffs (-155)
A quick count on the schedule measured against look-ahead lines and the win total has the Jacksonville Jaguars topping out at nine wins in 2024. That could get them second place in the AFC South but places them behind other AFC fringe teams like Cleveland, Miami, Buffalo, N.Y Jets, and Chargers in terms of conference pecking order.
The Jaguars’ strength of schedule is among the toughest in the league, and their commitment to playing in the UK makes that slate evening more daunting. Jacksonville could pick up where it left off, which isn’t a good thing, considering there are only two true home games in the opening seven weeks.
Jacksonville Jaguars at a glance: Risky business
Jacksonville is getting desperate, and it will show just how aggressive this team is on both sides of the ball in 2024. The offense needs Trevor Lawrence to make big plays, utilizing the downfield speed of his receivers. The defense, under new coordinator Ryan Nielsen, is trying to turn up the pressure and create more game-changing plays. These philosophies are high risk/high reward.
What will win bets: Skill positions
Lawrence’s efforts were tempered by injuries in 2023 which led to a rash of turnovers during the team’s stumble to the finish line. When healthy, he’s still a fantastic passer and has a playbook leaning into his big arm with the addition of home run hitters in wide receivers Gabe Davis and rookie Brian Thomas Jr.
The versatility of RB Travis Etienne will keep defenses guessing, and consistency on the offensive line will help with the run blocking. Etienne, slot receiver Christian Kirk, and TE Evan Engram will be called upon to improve Jacksonville’s output in the red zone after leaving too many points on the table in 2023.
What will lose bets: Defense
Jacksonville had a massive overhaul on the stop unit, bringing in new co-ordinator Ryan Nielsen. He’s going to mix in different fronts and dial up the intensity with more press coverage on receivers and an uptick in pass pressure. It all sounds good on paper but there will be a learning curve — especially with some roster replacements.
The schedule doesn’t set up well to ease those growing pains, with plenty of potent scoring attacks early on. Nielsen’s defense faces Miami, Buffalo, Houston, Chicago, Green Bay, Philadelphia, and Detroit before the Week 12 bye. JAX could be susceptible to the big play if the defense is careless in its push for pressure.
Jacksonville Jaguars schedule + spot bet: Pack your suitcase
For a second, let’s forget the opponents showing up on the Jags’ early-season slate. The schedule is already working against this team, which will play only two true home games in the opening seven weeks of 2024. Three of the first five come on the road before the annual trip across the pond to play in London in Weeks 6 and 7.
OK, now let’s look at who Jacksonville takes on. Outside of competitive games in the AFC South with Houston and Indianapolis, the Jaguars calendar is packed with playoff contenders. And many of those tougher games come on the road (at Miami, at Buffalo, at Philadelphia, at Detroit).
I’m smelling hints of Overs with this team, considering the competition and the volatile approach the Jags are taking on both offence and defence. If the stop unit gets burned for big plays, then Lawrence and the offense have to heave it. Five of the 17 look-ahead totals sit north of 47 points, with four of those taller numbers in the opening six games.
| 1 | Sunday, September 8 | @ Miami |
| 2 | Sunday, September 15 | vs. Cleveland |
| 3 | Monday, September 23 | @ Buffalo |
| 4 | Sunday, September 29 | @ Houston |
| 5 | Sunday, October 6 | vs. Indianapolis |
| 6 | Sunday, October 13 | vs. Chicago (London) |
| 7 | Sunday, October 20 | vs. New England (London) |
| 8 | Sunday, October 27 | vs. Green Bay |
| 9 | Sunday, November 3 | @ Philadelphia |
| 10 | Sunday, November 10 | vs. Minnesota |
| 11 | Sunday, November 17 | @ Detroit |
| 12 | Bye Week | N/A |
| 13 | Sunday, December 1 | vs. Houston |
| 14 | Sunday, December 8 | @ Tennessee |
| 15 | Sunday, December 15 | vs. New York (Jets) |
| 16 | Sunday, December 22 | @ Las Vegas |
| 17 | Sunday, December 29 | vs. Tennessee |
| 18 | Sunday, January 5 | @ Indianapolis |
Spot bet: Week 4 at Houston (+3.5, 47.5)
We’re going to know the Jaguars’ place in the AFC by the time this AFC South showdown is over.
Not only does this trip to Houston have Jacksonville on the road in back-to-back games and three times in the first four weeks, but it comes on a short rest after playing at Buffalo on Monday Night Football in Week 3.
Whether good or bad, the Texans have had the Jags’ number. Jacksonville is just 4-16 SU and 8-12 ATS versus Houston since 2014.
Laying Down The Law
- Awards
- TDs
- Yards
| To win MVP | +3,000 |
| To win OPOY | +7,500 |
| To lead NFL in passing TD | +3,000 |
| To lead NFL in passing yards | +2,500 |
| To lead NFL in INT | +1,200 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 22.5 passing TD | +115 |
| Under 22.5 passing TD | -135 |
| 25+ passing TD | +180 |
| 30+ passing TD | +800 |
BACK TO TOP
| Over 3,800.5 passing yards | +105 |
| Under 3,800.5 passing yards | -125 |
| 4,000+ passing yards | +160 |
| 4,500+ passing yards | +1,300 |
BACK TO TOP
Best prop: Over 22.5 touchdown passes (+115)
Red zone woes were a big issue for the Jaguars during that late-season flop, and of Trevor Lawrence’s 21 touchdown throws, only 12 came inside the 20-yard line. Avoiding those blown opportunities is a main focus heading into 2024.
Injury issues take some of the blame for Lawrence’s downfall, so as long as he’s healthy there’s a good shot the Jags’ $275 million man will threaten this 22.5 TD total. He’ll be stretching the field more, which plays to his strengths and could find himself in a number of shootouts against elite offensive opponents.
Player projections for T-Law’s touchdown total range from a modest 23 to 24 scoring strikes. I feel the ceiling could be higher if Lawrence avoids those drive-killing turnovers and figures out his red-zone funk.
Jacksonville Jaguars trend: London Unders
For the second straight season, the Jaguars will be playing two games in London. Owner Shahid Khan is dedicated to building the game internationally and making his team the face of football in the UK.
Jacksonville is used to making the trip but that hasn’t given it any advantage in terms of wins or ATS success, going 3-3 SU and ATS in UK games since 2018. However, there is a totals trend bubbling up with the Jags on foreign soil.
The team has played Under the total in its last six London games since 2018, including a 0-2 Over/Under record in 2023. Those games have produced a combined average of 37.8 points versus an average O/U total of 45 points.
Jacksonville Jaguars’ London Games
- Week 6 vs. Chicago (47.5)
- Week 7 vs. New England (42.5)
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In his 20 years with Covers, lead NFL betting analyst “JLo” has seen it all and bet it all. Through the wild west of early Internet gambling to lobbying for legalized sports betting to our brave new wagering world, Jason has been a consistent source of actionable info and entertainment for squares and sharps alike.
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